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Forex Market Update: Japanese Yen Crosses Pare Losses In European Trade

JPY pulled back from its Asian session highs amid reports of bargain hunting in the crosses following reserve management interest for GBP and EUR. USD-JPY stabilized after hitting 95.71 and is changing hands in the low 96s, although the dollar is generally a touch easier in early trade and further gains are capped.

EUR-JPY pushed back in to 134.75 versus the 133.60 area in Asia and GBP-JPY traded back in to the 157.80 area versus 156.40 lows. There have been reports of Japanese investor demand due to more investment trust launch activity. Most of the flow has tended to favor U.S. corporate bonds, but lower U.S. yields have resulted in selling from those hedging structured derivative products. The JPY crosses are likely to lead in holiday thin trade, while USD-JPY option congestion remains at 96.00-96.50.

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FOREX-Euro off lows as market seeks direction after jobs

* Euro edging off lows after being hit by stop-loss orders

* Mood remains cautious after bleak U.S. jobs numbers

* But Reuters poll shows Aussie, kiwi to be well supported

The euro struggled back from its lowest levels in a week on Friday, after a wave of sell orders compounded losses made on bleak U.S. jobs numbers, and it found support as some investors judged it may have slipped too far.

Dealers said the euro hit stop-loss sell orders around $1.3980, and possible hedge fund selling, in the crossover between late U.S. trade and the start of the Asian day, sending it down to $1.3927 EUR= on electronic trading platform EBS.

The euro and currencies such as the Australian dollar, which have benefited from investor hopes for economic turnaround, had already weakened on Thursday after data showed U.S. employers cut 467,000 jobs in June, far more than expected. [ID:nN01210643]

But analysts said market players then bought the euro back on Friday, helping it off the lows, although it was still weaker than before the employment data and investors were still dismayed the jobs numbers spelled a slower recovery than hoped.

"The risk in the very short term is that maybe we could see some corrective activity. But I don't think we're going into serious risk aversion mode," said Sharada Selvanathan, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas in Hong Kong.

The euro stood at $1.3982 EUR= on EBS, after shedding more than 1 percent on Thursday. It had hit a one-month high above $1.4200 earlier in the week.

The euro dropped as far as 133.58 yen EURJPY=R on Friday, after falling nearly 2 percent on Thursday, but had edged back to 134.18 yen later in Asian trade.

It had also faced selling pressure after comments from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet the previous day that euro-zone activity would likely remain weak for the rest of the year. The ECB left its benchmark refinancing interest rate at a record low of 1 percent, as expected. [ID:nL2512532]

The dollar was steady against the yen at 95.96 yen JPY=, holding well within a range of 93.50-100 that has limited it since mid-April.

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RPT-FOREX-Dollar up vs euro, down vs yen on weak US jobs data

Dollar rises vs euro, falls vs yen after jobs data * ECB holds key rate at record low 1.0 percent as expected * New orders for U.S. manufactured goods rise in May * China quells FX reserves speculation, supports dollar (Adds analysts' comments, detail about U.S. jobless rate and more on China official's remarks)

By Vivianne Rodrigues

NEW YORK, July 2 (Reuters) - The dollar rose versus the euro and fell against the yen on Thursday as a report showing a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. non-farm payrolls in June, renewed concerns about the economic recovery's pace.

U.S. Treasury bonds rose and U.S. stocks fell as the data raised risk aversion, enhancing the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

Analysts said demand for the euro also fell after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said euro-zone activity would likely remain weak for the rest of the year.

The ECB left its benchmark refinancing interest rate at a record low of 1 percent, as expected. Trichet said stabilization in 2010 would be followed by a recovery. For details, see [ID:nL2512532].

"The weak jobs report reinforced a trend already in place in the forex market prior to the release, that is, that the dollar was oversold," said Camilla Sutton, a currency strategist at Scotia Capital, in Toronto.

"Euro/dollar has been stuck in a range and with weak data like today's, the euro will not get the support to break through $1.42," she added.

In late morning trading in New York, the euro was down 1 percent at $1.3998 EUR=, retreating from $1.4201 hit on Wednesday, its highest since early June. The dollar slipped 0.6 percent to 95.99 yen JPY=EBS, after trading as high as 96.89 yen before the jobs report.

U.S. JOBLESS RATE NEAR 26-YEAR HIGH

U.S. employers cut 467,000 jobs in June, far more than expected, while the unemployment rate rose to almost a 26-year high of 9.5 percent, the government said. The report showed the country's labor market is still struggling with a deep recession. [ID:nN01210643]

"If you were banking on the U.S. driving a vigorous recovery, think again," Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS, said in a note. "The employment report can largely be taken at face value, and the face value story is a labor market that is not improving nearly as rapidly as the May data suggested."

Another report showing new orders for U.S. manufactured goods jumped 1.2 percent in May had limited impact on the foreign exchange markets. [ID:nN0220084]

Traders said volume is expected to dwindle this afternoon before the three-day weekend for the Independence Day holiday in the United States. Financial markets will be closed on Friday and will re-open on Monday.

Source

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WORLD FOREX: Dollar Posts Large Gains After June Jobs Report

TORONTO (Dow Jones)--The dollar posted relatively large gains versus the euro and most other major currencies Thursday, after a weak U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report encouraged currency players to shy away from risk ahead of Friday's U.S. Independence Day holiday.

Against expectations of a further 350,000 decline in U.S. employment rolls, June nonfarm payrolls instead fell by 467,000 and the U.S. unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high at 9.5%, demonstrating the continuing frailty of the labor market and the economy as a whole.

From a broad financial-market perspective, the report "prompted a sizable shift in risk appetite," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, as riskier assets such as equities and commodities were sold heavily Thursday.

As such, said Woolfolk, the dollar's rally was largely a market-positioning move and "more indicative of players taking risk off the table ahead of the long holiday weekend, than any true recovery in the greenback itself."

The exception to Thursday's strong-dollar trend was the yen, which also rallied sharply. The yen benefitted more than the dollar on the move out of risk because it is more sensitive than the dollar to equities and long-end Treasury yields, both of which came down Thursday, said Tom Fitzpatrick, a currency strategist at Citigroup in New York.

Still, Thursday's big gains by the dollar and yen did nothing to break the recent pattern of mostly sideways trading in major currency pairs, as markets continue to suffer from a lack of overall direction and increasing occasional pockets of summertime illiquidity.

"Clearly, uncertainty has been the major theme over the past couple of weeks, which has served to stop the slide in the dollar," said senior foreign-exchange trader Brendan McGrath of currency services firm Custom House in Victoria, British Columbia.

That could change on more convincing evidence of economic recovery, McGrath suggested, although the dollar can still be expected to continue finding support from bad economic news, "as investors still remain content to park their money in U.S. Treasury bonds any time there is uncertainty in the market."

Midafternoon Thursday, the euro was at $1.4025 from $1.4147 late Wednesday. The dollar was at Y95.85 from Y96.67, according to EBS. The euro was at Y134.45 from Y136.76. The U.K. pound was at $1.6402 from $1.6475, and the U.S. dollar was at CHF1.0822 from CHF1.0748.

Overnight, China's dismissal of a report that it was seeking to debate a new international reserve currency at next week's Group of Eight meeting also lent some support to the dollar. China's vice foreign minister, He Yafei, said he hadn't heard of any such request. He said he hoped the dollar will be stable because of its role as the main reserve currency.

The euro also strengthened against the Swiss franc after Swiss National Bank directorate member Thomas Jordan said the central bank was ready to intervene in currency markets.

Jordan didn't indicate what exchange rate level would trigger intervention, nor did he give details regarding the amount of money that would be involved. However, its unconfirmed currency interventions over the past few months have occurred between CHF1.50 and CHF1.52 against the euro.

Last week, the SNB bought around EUR3 billion of foreign currencies, according to traders, to curb the Swiss franc's rise.

Elsewhere, the European Central Bank as expected left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.00% and offered only scant revisions to its outlook for inflation and eurozone economic prospects.

Sweden's central bank, however, surprised markets Thursday by halving its key interest rate for the third consecutive time to a new record low of 0.25% due to the continued frailty of the Swedish economy.

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UPDATE 2-Danish June forex reserves rise, rates seen steady

COPENHAGEN, July 2 (Reuters) - Denmark's foreign exchange reserves rose by 5.0 billion crowns to 330.3 billion ($62.59 billion) in June against economists' expectation of no change, central bank data showed on Thursday.

The central bank, whose main lending rate stands at 1.55 percent, signalled no change in interest rates. Economists also said the modest rise in forex reserves suggested there would be no change for the time being.

A Reuters survey of six economists gave a central estimate for foreign exchange reserves to remain steady at 325.3 billion crowns, unchanged from May. The numbers exclude central government foreign loan transactions.

Denmark belongs to the European Union but not the euro zone. Its long-standing policy of maintaining a stable crown against the euro means that the central bank shifts key interest rates for the sole purpose of keeping the crown around its central parity of 7.46038 per euro.

The central bank's net purchases of foreign exchange -- which includes items such as interest accrued on the reserves and changes in banks' euro-denominated deposits at the Nationalbank -- totalled 8.2 billion crowns in June, and the central government repaid 3.3 billion in foreign debt.

'In June ... Nationalbank's net purchase of foreign exchange due to intervention in the foreign exchange market amounted to 6.7 billion crowns,' the central bank said in a statement.



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Pakistan's forex reserves rise to $11.84 bln

Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves rose by $70 million to $11.84 billion in the week that ended on June 27, compared with $11.77 billion the previous week, a central bank spokesman said on Thursday.

The State Bank of Pakistan's reserves edged up to $8.55 billion from $8.45 billion a week earlier. Reserves held by commercial banks fell to $3.29 billion from the previous week's $3.32 billion, the spokesman said.

Foreign reserves hit a record high of $16.5 billion in October 2007 but fell steadily to $6.6 billion by November last year, largely because of a soaring import bill.

Pakistan agreed in November to an International Monetary Fund emergency loan package of $7.6 billion to avert a balance of payments crisis and shore up reserves.

The central bank said on Wednesday it had received $500 million from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for a loan announced last week, receipt of which would be booked for the 2008/09 financial year that ended on Tuesday.

The loan amount will be reflected in data on foreign exchange reserves to be released on July 9.

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Russia c.bank says scraps forex recommendation

MOSCOW, July 2 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank said on Thursday it was scrapping its recommendation for commercial banks not to increase net foreign currency assets from the third quarter due to the stabilisation of the forex market.

The recommendation was issued in October 2008 just before the central bank announced a start of the gradual devaluation of the rouble. The recommendation linked banks' foreign currency position to access to the central bank's liquidity.

The central bank said the recommendation had helped to curb the demand for foreign currency at the height of the crisis. The central bank said it will continue to monitor commercial banks' net foreign currency position.

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Forex Thoughts: Ahead Of The NFP and ECB Conference

www.TheLFB-Forex.com A Forex Trader Portal

The market awaits the market reaction to ECB press conference, and the U.S. initial jobless claims, hourly earnings, unemployment rate, and non-farm payroll at 08:30 EDT, after the ECB maintained the minimum bid rate at 1% as widely expected.

The intra-day trade numbers are important as the markets absorb the ECB and NFP data. These release days are not the time to be in the market looking for long-term plays; those come as a reaction to the market-wide response to these releases over the next few sessions.

Historically these are volatile trading sessions, and as such great care and planning needs to be done to get the most from anything taken, and to come out of it with a shirt on our back. Expectaction and reality merge into one in most traders minds, and ranging 2000 pip runs are dreamt of.

However, those ranging, trending, moves all start with a period of volatility, contraction, tests of bids and asks, and suddenly a price is found that either buyers or sellers have given up on; and then the big break happens. If at all, that will likely be later in the session, and not at the get-go at 08:30 EDT, there is just too much to absorb,

Too many traders want to take too much from these days, for many reasons, but the reality is that small bites add up to a big chunk over time. Be patient, plan it out, know what numbers you want to hit, and accept that things can, and most likely will, spin on a dime. The ECB Pres Conference: live streaming link

There has already been more price movement from the majors overnight than we have seen historically ahead of these releases; the norm is to track sideways and then start to move about now.

The unique thing today is having the NFP moved up a day because of the 4th July U.S. Holiday, and hitting at the moment that the ECB press conference takes place.

Bear in mind that U.S. trade desks will be wrapping up early today, and that the bond markets will be all but finished in the U.S. by 11:00 EDT. We are here, we are ready, and we will update as things move. Remember, the goal is to come out of it with a shirt on our back, so move away from the mouse, wait for candles to close, plan the numbers (or use ours), and stay in control.

The impact of today will be with us for weeks, there is no rush to jump in.

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Forex Day Trading System-A Way to Trade Forex Currency

A forex day trading system is a must have for anyone who feels like they are ready to take the next step into forex trading. The right forex day trading system can help you make better trades. This article will give you some suggestions on what to look for in a foreign exchange day trading system.

A forex day trading system should come with some sort of training. When you learn anything for the first time you need some guidance. Even if you have been studying the forex market for some time, you need some guidance when you are starting a system for the first time. There should be an extensive manual included in the system that you've purchased. It would also be nice if your system came with some sort of a demo of how the system works so you can practice with pretend money before you use your real money.

Your forex day trading system should have some sort of human support system in place if you have questions or need help. Since you are starting this system as a total newbie, you may have some questions at some point during your trading career. The system you purchase should come with some sort or support desk. It's okay if they have standard office hours. I don't expect anyone to be accessible 24 hours a day. The main thing is that you need to be able to call or email someone when you have questions.

Forex trading can be an exciting way to make money from home. As with any business, you'll be more successful if you have a system in place. Look around the Internet for systems that you can use. Don't buy the first one you see. Look at a lot of different systems before you make a decision.

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WORLD FOREX: Dollar Rises, Euro Falls Waiting For Payrolls

LONDON (Dow Jones)--A small rise in risk aversion has helped the dollar and hit the euro in Europe Thursday as the market waits for the latest U.S. payrolls data.

A meeting by the European Central Bank that finishes at 1145 GMT is expected to leave rates unchanged and have little impact on sentiment.

Meanwhile, the Swedish central bank announced an unexpected 0.25-basis-point cut in its interest rates that hurt the krona and the Swiss franc was kicked a little lower by verbal intervention from the Swiss National Bank.

One of the key developments in Europe was a report from Fitch Ratings that Russian banks may need as much as $60 billion of fresh capital to help them deal with bad loans. Given the exposure euro-zone banks have to Russia, the news immediately undermined support for the euro.

However, risk aversion was already on the rise after Australia reported that its trade gap was much larger than the market anticipated. This all contributed to fears that global economic data - including the payrolls figures later Thursday - will indicate a more extended recession.

The fact that the Riksbank decided to cut its rate against market expectations certainly proves the point that officials remain wary that the downturn is over.

All this uncertainty was reflected in the weak performance of equity markets, with the Nikkei losing 0.6% and then European bourses falling as much as 1.5% at the start.

Despite the dollar's advance, the U.S. currency did face one major drag - the latest calls by China for G8 leaders meeting in Italy next week to discuss alternative reserve currencies.

See chart at

http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/2351

China, along with Brazil, India and Russia, has been pushing for other currency units - including the IMF's special drawing rights - to be used instead of the dollar.

By 0930 GMT, the dollar had risen to Y96.69 from Y96.44 late on Wednesday in New York, according to EBS.

The euro was down at $1.4097 from $1.4171 and at Y136.36 from Y136.71.

The dollar was also up at CHF1.0809 from $1.0730, helped in part by verbal intervention from SNB board member Thomas Jordan. He said the bank would continue to buy foreign currencies against the franc on "an ad hoc basis to achieve a large impact."

The SNB last intervened, buying the dollar as well as the euro, last week. Since then, however, the franc has continue to edge higher again.

Elsewhere, the pound is down at $1.6348 from $1.6484 as the U.S. currency waits for the release of payrolls. These are expected to show a fall of 350,000 last month after declining by 345,000 in May.

In Eastern Europe, currencies were mixed. The euro rose a little to HUF269.40 from HUF269.30 and to PLN4.3797 from PLN4.3508. But the single currency fell to CZK25.699 from CZK25.756.


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Making Professional Forex Traders

Forex Strategy Secrets just released their new course. Nth Degree. It is a course designed to take forex traders to the next level, substantially increasing their profits. The course was released the end of March and customers are loving it

(PRWEB) July 2, 2009 -- Nth degree is Forex Strategy Secret's new forex trading course. It focuses on taking forex traders from living in a trade to trade mentality to making forex trading a substantial source of income. Nth degree was designed by a father and a son team, Kirk and Jed Norwood. Kirk started his trading career in stocks, options and commodities but ultimately fell into forex finding that he loved the control forex offered. From there Kirk introduced his son Jed to the forex strategies he was learning and Jed found out that forex was really something that ignited his passion.

They went on to develop, critique and now publish the forex strategies that made them forex mentors for other traders. Forex Strategy Secrets was formed to push their successful strategies beyond their circle of friends and into and international world. It was a rough start, just like any business. They struggled to gain the trust of the forex traders of the world, they were two traders from Utah claiming to know the ins and outs of forex. Their business model is learning first, profits second. Walter Trinkala of Virginia put it this way describing the Norwood's teaching style "Like the old adage...'give someone a fish they eat for a day. Teach someone to fish they eat for a life time'. I hope to meet you and Jed some day to personally thank you."

The recent release of their newest product, the Nth Degree, has been a milestone in their business career. The created the Nth Degree to teach average traders how to maximize their earnings and become above average traders with real profits. Their simple teaching method is what sets them apart from the competition. While other strategies are teaching formulas, complex charts and signals the Forex Strategy's forex tutorial (which consists of Jump Start - their free course, Launch Pad, and Nth Degree) is teaching traders how to earn pips.

Kirk and Jed's success is summed up in this one testimonial of their new forex trading education product:

"Before I had found Forex Strategy Secrets, my trading was inconsistent, and unsuccessful. After working with launch pad and the Nth degree, I was making a large number of trades that were in excess of 100 pips, and some trades over 200 pips. One day, between multiple trades, I made an excess of over 700 pips! Forex Strategy Secrets was the best investment I have ever made regarding currency trading." Thank you, - Josh A. Provo, Utah.

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Learn Online Trading To Earn Extra Money

Currency forex learn online trading was something that up until recently was limited to large banks and financial institutions. Now it is possible for anyone who has access to the Internet to learn how to trade currency online. It is very easy to learn how to trade in the forex market online. A lot of brokers have demo accounts to help you learn how to trade in the forex markets. Here are some pointers to help you get started.

Learn the vocabulary: Before you begin forex trading, it is important for you to learn the lingo. Just like anything else, forex traders have their own special vocabulary. If you try to trade in the forex market without learning the vocabulary, it will be like visiting a foreign country without learning the language first. You will be extremely confused. Take some time to learn the vocabulary related to forex trading before you start. The forex market is not going to disappear anytime soon. Take all the time necessary to get familiar with the terminology you will need to become successful as a forex trader.

Practice before you start using real money: I know this seems like common sense, but you should really practice your strategy with pretend money before you start using your own money. The reason I say this is because it can take a while for you to learn what is going on with forex and currency trading. While you are learning this information, it is a lot better to practice with pretend money. It is pretty hard to be a forex trader if you're homeless! You can fool around and lose your money if you don't know what you are doing when it comes to forex trading. Go online and find some places that will allow you to practice forex trading for free. Do that until you feel like you have the hang of it before you start trading for real.

Forex trading can be a lucrative way to earn money from home. It can also be very risky if you don't know what you're doing. Follow the advice in this article and you will be well on your way to success in forex trading.

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Forex Trading Robots - Measuring Profitability

Forex trading software has become more sophisticated with the introduction of forex trading robots. Experienced and novice traders want to test drive this automated way of trading and gauge how it measures up in the forex market.

Most of these programs have convincing presentations and impressive performance records, but be wary about building your trust too much about any particular forex trading software. Most of them offer tested data which are pretty much remarkable, but in most cases these robots have not traded with hard currencies. It doesn't mean that these forex trading software systems are fraudulent, created just to swindle you. A number of these robots have track records of profitability for several years and have been tested during actual trading. The only way to find out which one of these particular trading robots can work to your advantage is to acquire the software and try it out.

There are hundreds of forex trading robots available on the market. Some of them promise a refund if you find their system to be such a waste of time, while others can do the job. You can try out different systems that work best for your trading style. There are programs geared towards beginners, experienced and long term traders. The option of which programs to use is up to you.

Be on guard to the ones that claim they're the most profitable and convince you that you'll become rich quicker, these are the ones that you should avoid. The tested automated forex robots will make profits for you, not in a quick manner but a steady movement, thus, increasing your profit slowly but surely. A lot of money can be made dealing in forex trading but will not make you rich overnight.

Look for those forex trading programs that make more winning calls based on past performance and adopt an autopilot feature to stop automatically to minimize any losses when the market is unsteady. Such systems are good candidates for making profits, in the long run.

The most essential method is to consider carefully about your investment objectives and employ proven trading strategies. This is where the forex trading robots become useful. Since robots respond to the program and commands of its owner, your forex trading robots will automate the trading for you, using the tried and tested trading strategies which you can input in its memory.

Automated forex robots and trading systems are used by both beginner and experienced forex traders for more profitable trading in the forex market.

Visit Forex Trading for more info on foreign exchange currency market trading.

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Forex Day Trading - Illusion Vs Reality

A lot of people go into forex day trading thinking that it is profitable. Unfortunately, day trading profitability simply does not exist. It does not make you money at all.

Yet, millions of traders are falling into this trap, moved by different reasons, influenced by a variety of emotions. Trillions of dollars are being traded everyday by these people who believe they can get something out of day trading.

What traders usually do is bend their system in order to fit the data into that system -- a process termed as curve-fitting. Then again, you have to know that once traded, this data may actually change its form and this can translate to greater losses for you.

One other thing you should know is that forex brokers may take advantage of ones lack of technical know-how in forex trading and the greed that often leaves one desiring for more money. Capitalizing on these, they advertise the alleged benefits of day trading using made-up track records.

Here are some truths about forex day trading:

  • Forex trading is risky business. In order to win, you must have all the odds work to your advantage.
  • Day traders usually no longer let their profits earn more money for them because the moment they earn, they readily take their profit to themselves.

You can never win with forex day trading. Don't be misled into believing that you can because the truth is, you simply can not. If you really want to earn, try your hand at forex swing trading instead.

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Forexyard puts its horns into Meta Trader forex automated trading

(1888PressRelease) July 01, 2009 - After launching a brand new web site last week, www.FOREXYARD.com forges ahead with an ever widening array of products by launching its FSA (Forex Strategy Automator) account. The new product is more than just a new account type. It allows traders to choose pre-made strategies to trade on their behalf. basically, where once a user would need to go through the steps of learning all there was to learn about forex trading, customers now need only choose a strategy that suits his or her needs and desires and the rest is automated. The technology is completely web bases, requires no download, and can be used on any computer or browser type.



The technology allows novices and experts alike to step into the forex market with little or no knowledge whatsoever. FOREXYARD makes only one assumption; that a customer can decide for himself who best to manage his portfolio. Customers need only imagine that they are stepping into a full service brokerage where they can meet and learn everything about there account manager including performance history. So at a click of a button, a customer can choose who best to manage his money based on real performance.



Forex traders more familiar with the Meta Trader platform will also be very comfortable with this new account type. FOREXYARD customers using the aptly named FSA (FOREX STRATEGY AUTOMATOR) account can now utilize all the benefits found on MT4, but on a legitimate broker's software. Foreyard's new software allows an EA (Expert Advisors) the ability to upload strategies on to the platform making them readily accessible to all of Foreyard's customers. The new functionality will allow traders the world over to choose any number of strategies to work for them while EAs can upload there own strategies just like on Meta Trader 4.



Established in 2005, FOREXYARD is an online foreign exchange broker providing thousands of customers the vehicle to trading forex never before available. By providing this new technology, FOREXYARD hopes to take some of the bite from learning forex.

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FOREX SCAM:Chinese denied bail

Midima First Grade Magistrate Lyson Chitsulo has objected to a bail application by a Chinese national Shen Chong who has been slapped with money laundering charges.
He was arrested at Chileka International Airport last week for attempting to externalise some US$39,151 without official permission contrary to Malawi laws.
Chitsulo argued that he could not release the suspect on bail because the offence is serious and there is a possibility that the suspect can bolt because he is foreigner.
“This is a serious case because the suspect was caught trying to take forex out of this country at a time when there is an acute shortage of forex. This has serious repercussions because it could frustrate the economy.
“Secondly, the suspect was arrested at the airport when he was about to leave this county. He is a foreigner and his place of birth has not been ascertained yet as such there is every possibility that he could jump bail and escape. As such, I have decided to deny the suspect bail,” he ruled.
The magistrate said although the court appreciated that the criminal procedure, and the constitution provides that every accused person has a right to be released on bail, such right was not absolute.
“The provision for bail also considers the seriousness of the case, the penalty of the case, likelihood of the suspect jumping bail and likelihood of the suspect interfering with witnesses to the case,” he argued.
Magistrate Chitsulo, however, ordered state prosecutors to commence trial within a fortnight.
Shen’s lawyer Trouble Kalua said he would appeal to the High Court.
“My client has requested for a second hearing of the bail at a higher court. I would be submitting the application for the second hearing at the High Court very soon,” he said.
There were several other Chinese nationals at the court who prevented journalists from taking photographs or conducting interviews related to the case.
Shen hid the money in Benson & Hedges cigarette packets at the time fiscal police arrested him.
His arrest came barely a week after President Bingu wa Mutharika slammed some business persons and foreigners for illegally externalising forex.
Mutharika branded such persons as enemies of the state.

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Forex Seasonality: Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen May Decline in July

Forex trading market seasonality is an effect widely studied as a primary mover of major currency pairs, as long-term studies suggest that certain seasonal patterns may be able to predict forex price moves. The month of July has produced some interesting results in the Japanese Yen and Canadian dollar. Both the USDCAD and the USDJPY have rallied in July through 9 of the past 11 years. Read below for further information on the JPY, CAD, and forex seasonality studies in other major currencies.


The Canadian dollar has shown remarkable consistency through the month of July, falling in 9 of the past 11 years of trading. One would think that such strong seasonality would have something to do with oil or commodity prices, but similar studies on Crude Oil prices and the Reuters CRB index are far less conclusive. As it stands, the USDCAD has started the month already 100+ pips below its June close. Previous trends suggest we should watch for potential USDCAD reversal through the coming month’s trade.

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Faulty blades, forex call leave Rs 183-cr hole in Suzlon books

A huge loss suffered through currency options and the expense incurred in replacing faulty blades supplied to the US customers saw Tulsi
Tanti-owned Suzlon Energy slipping into the red. The company on Sunday announced a standalone loss of Rs 183 crore for the quarter ended March this year against a profit of Rs 482 crore for the same period last year. Its standalone income from operations fell to Rs 2,040 crore in the same period from Rs 2,746 crore.

The company said its revenues will remain flat in the coming months due to lack of demand from its key markets. “We are dealing with a very difficult external environment, where the wind industry has gone through a reasonably significant external correction. From a growth rate of about 30% over the past several years, we are now moving to a situation where there will be a flat growth in the industry,” warned Suzlon’s chief operating officer Sumant Sinha.

The company’s sales were hit after some blades cracked and customers in the United States cancelled their orders. The replacement of blades, which will be completed by August this year, has cost the company Rs 411 crore.
The company also suffered losses on FCCB front. “We have suffered marked-to-market losses related to foreign currency convertible bonds besides other general hedging losses. We also had certain blade retrofit issues. Fortunately, a lot of those costs are behind us,” Mr Sinha said.

On the sale of its 61% stake worth $1 billion in its Belgian arm Hansen, Mr Sinha said the company is in early stage of talks with potential buyers. On a consolidated basis, Suzlon’s income from operations was Rs 9,208 crore in the March quarter of this year with a profit of Rs 410 crore. The company has partially included REpower revenues as it completed the acquisition this month. Suzlon’s shares closed at Rs 123.35 on Friday on the Bombay Stock Exchange.

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Wockhardt may take forex issue to court

MUMBAI: Wockhardt is talking tough with banks that have unilaterally terminated their forex contracts with the company ahead of schedule. These
are large foreign banks, which have distanced themselves from the corporate debt restructuring (CDR) exercise.

The company has sought legal opinion on the matter, said chairman Habil Khorakiwala. “We hope that a mutually acceptable conclusion can be reached, but failing which we will take a defensive stand,” he told the media after addressing shareholders at the company’s AGM on Monday.

The banks cancelled the forex derivative contracts after Wockhardt defaulted. These banks are claiming Rs 489.52 crore from Wockhardt, which has not provided for this in its balance sheet. According to lawyers, Wockhardt could challenge the banks either in an Indian court or in a foreign court, based on what the company viewed as convenient and beneficial. “If the forex contract was signed with a subsidiary or the parent company, either can challenge the bank,” said a lawyer familiar with the development.

Mr Khorakiwala also said that Wockhardt would be divesting more of its non-core assets in 3-6 months. “We will also consolidate our business. This, however, will not impact either our topline or bottomline. In fact, we see profitability improving,” he said.


At present, over 70% of Wockhardt’s turnover is from its international operations and sales. The company is also believed to be looking for a buyer for its Irish facility Pinewood and its French subsidiary Negma Laboratories, though Mr Khorakiwala declined to comment on the issue.

Quashing speculations that it was looking at selling its hospital business, Mr Khorakiwala said that the company was in discussions with various players to sell a minority stake in Wockhardt Hospitals. “We are in talks with a number of strategic investors, including Fortis Healthcare, for our hospital business. We will retain majority stake,” he said. “We are also looking for partners for our biotech business, but that will take 12-18 months,” he added.

Wockhardt’s CDR process, involving the company’s rupee debt, is under way, according to the company. Wockhardt has foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) worth $110 million, which are due for conversion in October this year, would be bought back at a discount or restructured.

“We are offering two options. One is an alternative structure to the FCCB holders and the other is to buy back the FCCBs at a discount. We have initiated talks with the people concerned about this. We will find this from the money raised from sale of non-core assets,” Mr Khorakiwala said.

The key benefit of being admitted to the CDR cell, he added, was the additional priority loans that the company was getting for operational expenses. Wockhardt has external commercial borrowings worth $250 million and undertook LBO financing for both Pinewood and Negma worth approximately $200 million.

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Wockhardt may take forex issue to court

MUMBAI: Wockhardt is talking tough with banks that have unilaterally terminated their forex contracts with the company ahead of schedule. These
are large foreign banks, which have distanced themselves from the corporate debt restructuring (CDR) exercise.

The company has sought legal opinion on the matter, said chairman Habil Khorakiwala. “We hope that a mutually acceptable conclusion can be reached, but failing which we will take a defensive stand,” he told the media after addressing shareholders at the company’s AGM on Monday.

The banks cancelled the forex derivative contracts after Wockhardt defaulted. These banks are claiming Rs 489.52 crore from Wockhardt, which has not provided for this in its balance sheet. According to lawyers, Wockhardt could challenge the banks either in an Indian court or in a foreign court, based on what the company viewed as convenient and beneficial. “If the forex contract was signed with a subsidiary or the parent company, either can challenge the bank,” said a lawyer familiar with the development.

Mr Khorakiwala also said that Wockhardt would be divesting more of its non-core assets in 3-6 months. “We will also consolidate our business. This, however, will not impact either our topline or bottomline. In fact, we see profitability improving,” he said.


At present, over 70% of Wockhardt’s turnover is from its international operations and sales. The company is also believed to be looking for a buyer for its Irish facility Pinewood and its French subsidiary Negma Laboratories, though Mr Khorakiwala declined to comment on the issue.

Quashing speculations that it was looking at selling its hospital business, Mr Khorakiwala said that the company was in discussions with various players to sell a minority stake in Wockhardt Hospitals. “We are in talks with a number of strategic investors, including Fortis Healthcare, for our hospital business. We will retain majority stake,” he said. “We are also looking for partners for our biotech business, but that will take 12-18 months,” he added.

Wockhardt’s CDR process, involving the company’s rupee debt, is under way, according to the company. Wockhardt has foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) worth $110 million, which are due for conversion in October this year, would be bought back at a discount or restructured.

“We are offering two options. One is an alternative structure to the FCCB holders and the other is to buy back the FCCBs at a discount. We have initiated talks with the people concerned about this. We will find this from the money raised from sale of non-core assets,” Mr Khorakiwala said.

The key benefit of being admitted to the CDR cell, he added, was the additional priority loans that the company was getting for operational expenses. Wockhardt has external commercial borrowings worth $250 million and undertook LBO financing for both Pinewood and Negma worth approximately $200 million.

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Rise in value of non-dollar assets boosts forex kitty by $2.4 billion

MUMBAI: Foreign exchange reserves rose $2.4 billion to $263.6 billion during the week endedJune 12, partly due to an increase in the value of assets held in non-dollar currencies, following the dollar weakening against these currencies

Almost 40% of RBI’s forex reserves are believed to be in non-dollar assets, including the sterling pound, yen, euro and the yuan. However, the exact composition is not known, as no central bank makes public the currency composition of its reserves. Forex reserves would have also gone up, as RBI has been buying dollars to prevent the rupee from appreciating too sharply.

RBI data show the annual money supply growth now at 20.2% is lower than previous year’s 21.78%. As per the updated money supply figures, total stock of money comprising cash currency and deposits amounted to Rs 49,39,696 crore as on June 5, up Rs 8,483 crore (0.2%) over previous fortnight’s levels. While currency with the public and demand deposits dipped Rs 173 crore and Rs 20,795 crore, respectively, term deposits rose Rs 26,885 crore.

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Forex and Financial Market Weekly Outlook 28 June to 3 July 2009

When I sat down to write my commentary on this week's trading all I could think was, "this should be a wild week". What's facing the markets are a number of calendar events and central bank events that are all culminating over the next five trading days, so the key theme I want traders to keep in the forefront of their minds and trading decisions -- risk management.

High risk alert--


Over the next 48-hours the price action of the Forex market, equities, commodities, and fixed income will all be under the direct influence of a major calendar event that I like to refer to as "end of quarter book squaring". Monday and Tuesday are the final two trade days of Q2 and that will be the very last opportunity for market participants like hedge funds, money managers, brokers, institutional traders, and participants in banking/finance to show some kind of a profit or to mitigate an unrealized loss.

Historical price action patterns and historical price behaviors show a repeated pattern of heightened volatility and extended periods of strong price swings the final 48-hours of each quarter. This is not a random coincidence but due to the process for how market participants close out positions, for profit or loss. The end of quarter price swings also repeatedly reoccur due to the continuous and varying degrees of money-flows and levels of liquidity that are moving in and out of all the financial markets as participants are squaring up, repositioning, or pre-positioning.

The strong correlation between currencies, crude oil, gold, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Treasuries dictates the high probability for intensified price action across the board as each of those individual markets affect each other as a whole. At least for the next 48-hours forget the charts, forget the multi-colored dissecting lines, all that junk is meaningless because the markets will be driven by fear and greed... just follow the money trail...

The end of quarter window dressing that goes on is driven purely by fear and greed -- fear that a money manager or hedge fund won't show a profit for Q2 or greed that a money manager or hedge fund can potentially show a bigger profit than expected in order to pad their fees and commissions. Many market participants are under intense pressure to show a profitable performance in order to make their quarterly statements look good and this means some of those participants will either take profit off the table, be forced to cover an unrealized loss, or to do some revenge trading to make that bonus or commission and to keep the phone calls from angry clients to a minimum.

I love the end of quarter madness because it shows how human emotions really control markets and drive price action. I recommend to most retail Forex traders to sit on the sidelines while the markets go through this process, especially for those traders who are too under capitalized to be in the FX market in the first place.

End of quarter trade plan--


Other than reducing the amount of margin I use for each trade position I won't be doing a whole lot different over the next 48-hours in terms of how I pick my entries and exits. That being said, I am starting the week with an anti-dollar bias until we at least get through the end of quarter book squaring event. In my trading career I've been through ten end of quarter events and based on what my experience shows me and on what historical price action shows, the dollar historically has a higher probability of weakening against the euro.

With the Forex market's tendency to repeat price patterns over and over again, I'm choosing not to fight against history or human behavior. Of course if crude oil, gold, and the S&P 500 make gains over the next 48-hours the dollar should be under downside pressure just from those factors alone.

After we get past this calendar event I may reevaluate my anti-dollar bias because we will be coming up on the 1-year anniversary of the market's monumental meltdown. It was just two weeks into Q3 last year that the Forex, commodities, and equity markets plunged from their historical highs... the EUR/USD, crude oil, and the S&P 500 all made their historical highs in tandem (not a coincidence) and as crude oil was the first to crack and sell-off from the $147 level, the S&P 500 tanked which took the EUR/USD from the 1.6000 level all the way to the 1.2300 level between last July and October.

I'm not predicting or expecting an exact repeat performance of last summer but after we get past this week's calendar events which include an ECB monetary policy meeting and NFP, there's really no way to predict what the markets will decide to do next. History will always repeat itself but at this point I am not seeing the market's sentiment move closer to the side of risk aversion as opposed to where participants have been in terms of maintaining a higher risk appetite.

Keep things as simple as possible, don't fight against the market correlations even if they appear disjointed at times but to just go with the flow, follow the money and when you do not have a clear view on where you think the market will go, sit out and protect your capital. The great Jesse Livermore once said:

"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor."

Fundamental events moving markets this week:

The end of month/end of quarter/start of new quarter are not the only calender events that will move markets this week. There are a number of fundamental factors that will come into play as traders attempt to determine the short-term fate of the euro, dollar, pound sterling, and yen. Underlying fundamental factors like inflation, deflation, monetary policy, employment, manufacturing, and the health of the consumer will all come into view by the markets.

The following fundamental factors hold the highest potential to move the EUR/USD and its correlated markets this week:

  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Monday 0500 EST)
  • Eurozone M3 Money Supply (Tuesday 0400 EST)
  • Eurozone Flash CPI (Tuesday 0500 EST)
  • US Consumer Confidence (Tuesday 1000 EST)
  • German Retail Sales (Wednesday 0200 EST)
  • ISM Manufacturing and ISM Prices (Wednesday 1000 EST)
  • Pending Home Sales and Construction Spending (Wednesday 1000 EST)
  • Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 1030 EST)
  • ECB Trichet monetary policy press conference (Thursday 0830 EST)
  • Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (Thursday 830 EST)
  • Eurozone Retail Sales (Friday 0500 EST)
  • US bank holiday (Friday)
There will also be plenty of central bankers from the Fed, ECB, BOE, BOJ, and SNB speaking this week. The markets are still ripe for market-moving verbal manipulation, do not get caught off guard because the central bankers may want to use the market conditions to their advantage this week to move their respective currencies one direction or the other.

The ECB and monetary policy:


At 0745 EST on Thursday the ECB will release their latest decision on their monetary policy for the key lending rate. At this point I see a no-change in their interest rate policy. The main reason I believe the ECB rate will leave rates at 1.00% is because Trichet has repeatedly said he's not cutting rates this month. Trichet could just be messing with the market's minds but his pattern of behavior in the past shows a much higher tendency for his rhetoric on interest rates to match actual monetary policy.

Remember what the ECB did to the dollar last Tuesday? In case you forget you can re-read it here. It only took a few comments on interest rates from the ECB to send the euro flying against the dollar last week. If Trichet wants to boost the euro again he can do it at his monetary policy press conference on Thursday.

For the past few weeks the Fed and ECB have worked well together to keep the EUR/USD in a relatively tight range. The purpose for this isn't anything I know but it doesn't matter, the evidence is clear based on all the verbal rhetoric and monetary policy actions by both central banks. The latest FOMC monetary policy event did not reveal a strong pro-dollar bias. I think their statement left the door open for market participants to continue selling the dollar when the opportunity presents itself.

The ECB has maintained a fairly consistent pro-euro stance recently. Could this change suddenly? Of course, but for now I'm adding the central bank and monetary policy factors as another reason for my anti-dollar bias because the recent trend between the Fed and ECB has been anti-dollar, pro-euro. Until the central banks change their bias, I'm not changing mine.

Trichet is pretty reliable when it comes to telling the market what to do with the euro. If Trichet wants the euro to keep gaining on the dollar he will paint a good picture of the Eurozone's economic, fundamental, and banking sectors. If Trichet tells the markets that deflation is not an issue and that ECB interest rates have reached their lowest threshold, that's his way of telling the markets to appreciate the euro and to buy it against the dollar.

If Trichet wants the euro to depreciate he will tell the market's the ECB is concerned about deflation, that interest rates can go lower in the future, that the ECB is going to monetize sovereign debt, that the Eurozone economy is going to contract further than previously expected, and that the European banking system is fractured.

I can't predict which message we will hear from Trichet but it won't be hard to figure out at his press conference. It should not be a mystery, Trichet uses less double-speak than Bernanke and it is very easy to read between the lines to decipher what he wants the market to do with the EUR/USD.


Treasury bonds and the US dollar:


The past couple of months there's been a lot of focus put on Treasuries and the US debt market, and ever since the Fed announced it would buy up to $300 billion worth of debt, the Treasury/Dollar connection has received the full attention of market participants. When I see something on Bloomberg or CNBC about Treasuries and the US dollar I never see the commentator or analyst explain the relationship between the two.

I think it is important for Forex traders to get a grasp on the Treasury/Dollar connection because their relationship affects both the debt and currency markets in very specific ways. The currency market is not a single entity unto itself and one of the correlated markets which helps determine currency valuations is the US debt market.

Next to the currency market, the US Treasury market is the most liquid in the world. This means the Treasury market can easily handle multi-billion dollar transactions, they can absorb selling pressures while preventing wild price swings, Treasuries are easily converted and there has never been a default on US debt, to date. US Treasuries are considered to be the safest and least riskiest asset class used for investment purposes.

One of the big reasons Treasuries have a strong affect on not just the Forex markets but all financial markets is because they are made up of the two biggest components that drive risk appetites -- price and yield (rate of return). All tradeable financial market are just a space for speculators to seek a rate of return on their money. Some speculators want to get that rate of return as safely as possible while others want that astronomical rate of return. But the way it works is, the lower the risk, the lower the yield, the higher the risk, the higher the yield.

In order for market participants to trade in the US Treasury market they need to use the US dollar and in order for the Treasury to meet its obligation to its creditors they need to use the US dollar. The use of the dollar comes full circle from the moment the investor hands the US government his money for a predetermined amount of time back to the moment when the federal government pays their creditor interest and then principle when the debt obligation comes to full maturity. That factor alone is just enough to affect the dollar's valuations against currencies like the euro, pound sterling, Swiss franc, and yen.

The other key factor which causes the valuation of the dollar to change is also directly related to the yield of each respective US debt obligation. Earlier this year the 10-year note was yielding just 6bps above the 2.00% level and now the 10-year is yielding over the 3.60% level. That means the US government is getting a lower price for their debt and that it will cost the government more money to pay its debts. Right now the US government has a major deficit problem, public debt has skyrocketed and those factors are bad for the US dollar and are a strike against it.

Then when the Treasury prints money to give to the Fed to return it back to the Treasury in exchange for its own debt, the dollar gets a really big strike against it. In a normal world this process of monetizing sovereign debt would be impossible but when you have the Fed and Treasury working so closely together with powers that are not even constitutional, they are like the Super Friends of the financial markets, they can just do whatever they want and nobody can stop them.

All Treasuries have a minimum denomination of $1000 and there will always be more supply than demand and that's another reason the Treasury market is so liquid and how multi-billions of dollars can move in and out of the market on a daily basis. This factor also has a direct affect on the valuation of the US dollar at any given moment of the trade day.

The other factor with the connection between Treasuries and the dollar is debt repayments... lets suppose you bought a $1000 debt obligation on the 10-year note at a yield of 4.00%. That means the government would pay you $20 every 6-months and then at the date of maturity they would return your $1000 in principle. The more debt that is supplied and purchased means the government has more debt to pay back which is bad for the dollar. Plus, the more debt that is supplied means the yield is higher and the government has to pay more to get less.

Dollars have to be printed to facilitate these processes and of course that is a big strike against the dollar. A market situation where Treasury yields are rising can be dollar positive but the cause for the higher yields is the key. If Treasury yields are rising because the Treasury is over supplying the market with debt, that is bad for Treasuries and bad for the dollar. Printing money is the purest form of inflation and when inflation rises the value of Treasuries falls.

Foreign debt holders like the Chinese see their investment in Treasuries erode when the value of their investment falls and the dollar weakens. Whenever inflationary price pressures pick up again in the future any foreign investment in Treasuries will devalue accordingly. Add the combination of inflationary price pressures and a depreciated US dollar and US debt looks pretty unattractive.

I don't want to over complicate this stuff but hopefully this sheds some light on why the Treasury market is so closely correlated to the Forex market and why movements in the Treasury market lead to movements on pairs like the EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GPB/USD, and USD/JPY. Even though I'm purely a currency trader I keep close tabs on the Treasury market because I think bond traders are very smart and well adjusted to the fundamental, monetary policy, and geo-political factors which move the markets.

Swiss National Bank interventions:


Between March and as recent as last week, the SNB has gone on a quest to manipulate and devalue the Swiss franc. In the past three months there's been at least six open-market operations by the SNB and BIS to depreciate the franc versus the euro. The secondary affect of their open-market operations results in the dollar gaining against the franc and because the USD/CHF and EUR/USD maintain mostly an inverse correlation, the EUR/USD routinely moves lower during these interventions just for the fact the USD/CHF and EUR/CHF move higher.

Why the SNB is depreciating the franc--

The SNB and BIS are most concerned with the valuation of the EUR/CHF and their main objective is to sharply weaken the franc against the euro. The SNB's motivation to devalue their own currency is about as simple as it gets... debt holders in Europe, especially in Eastern Europe owe Swiss banks money and they want to get paid, bottomline. The Swiss are good financiers and so they are using monetary policy to make it easier for European debtors to pay their Swiss creditors. The secondary factor is to help support the Swiss exporting industry.

The SNB dumps francs and buys euros right on the open market and that's why those 150-point spikes occur on pairs like the EUR/CHF and USD/CHF. I do not trade either of those pairs but if I did I would be watching the SNB and BIS like a hawk and I'd never attempt to trade against them. Traders who are purely technical and who do not pay attention to the central banks have been steamrolled by these interventions and those traders who understand how the central banks affect the Forex market have been on the right side of these moves.

I personally think the interventions can continue in the near-term until the SNB has achieved its objectives. As long as Eastern Europe remains on the brink, the Swiss will likely see to it the CHF remains depreciated against the EUR. Do not fight the SNB on this stuff, it's not worth it. Central banks love using the element of surprise to hit the markets when they least expect it and this week could easily present more opportunities to see a repeat performance.
Correlated markets:

Beside all the monetary policy, fundamental and calendar events that will be moving the markets we need to keep up with the price action of crude oil, gold, the S&P 500, Dow, and Treasuries. If the higher-risk, higher-yielding correlated markets make upside moves the dollar and USD Index will come under renewed selling pressure this week. Beside all the underlying fundamental factors, crude and gold will be the two linchpins which can make or break the markets and I will be watching both closely and using both as trade indicators.

Support and resistance levels--

In preparing for the trade week I spent some time studying the most recent price action and price behavior patterns of the markets and these are some of the overall key price levels on the upside and downside I'll be monitoring...

Spot crude -- the market has shown a pattern of buying crude when it dips below both the $69 and $67 levels. Below there is more support sitting around the $65 level. I'm not expecting any big downside moves with crude this week unless there are heavy rounds of profit-taking or geo-political factors that might come into play. On the upside strong resistance is seen just above the $73 level with minor resistance seen around the $72/$71 level.

Spot gold -- gold spent most of the month of June in a downward directional move but the same exact day the six ECB's came out to talk the euro up against the dollar, spot gold hit a bottom and has since moved up decisively (not a coincidence). Currently there is some resistance between the $943 and $945 levels while support is sitting at the $923 and $913 levels. Strong resistance for spot gold sits around $988 while strong support is currently around $888. A strong move up in gold this week should carry the euro and pound sterling up with it.

S&P 500 futures -- this correlated market has had a wild ride in recent weeks... the S&P 500 futures made three solid attempts to sustain a break of the 952 level on the topside and failed. On the downside, the market made several runs at the 888 level but also failed to break below there. Near-term support is sitting around 901-900 while near-term resistance is around the 920-925 levels. If the S&P 500 puts in a strong showing it should carry the higher-yielding currencies right along with it or vice versa.

EUR/USD -- price action patterns show the first line of support is strong at the 1.3982 level and then at the 1.3828 level, and then further strong support sits at the 1.3753 level. On the upside, there will be some resistance around 1.4088, then at 1.4178, and then at the 1.4226 and 1.4340 levels. Any of these upside/downside levels can easily be broken this week and the probability remains high for a EUR/USD range break in the days ahead, especially with all the fundamental, monetary policy, and geo-political events going down.

That should about cover things for the week ahead. Like I said at the start, good risk management should be at the forefront of your trading decisions at least over the next 48-hours and especially on Thursday. If you find yourself on the wrong side of the market it's always easier to recover from a small loss than it is to make up when you let a position run away from you.

Finally one last quote from Jesse Livermore:

"All through time, people have basically acted the same way in the market as a result of greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. This is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."

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Major forex players gear up for Invest Fair 2009

(SINGAPORE) Amid the growing popularity of foreign exchange (FX) trading, leading providers chasing a bigger slice of the cake will make their presence felt - in a big way - at Invest Fair 2009.


For instance, third-time participant CMC Markets is unfazed by the economic slowdown and has signed up for a 'platinum' booth of 36 square metres.

According to general manager Geoffrey Sawyer: 'The market volatility underscores the importance of knowledge and skills to ensure traders capitalise on opportunities and challenges.

'Invest Fair is an event that brings together those who are serious about trading and investing. CMC Markets believes the event provides a great platform for traders to access new information and products. Participants can also hear from the industry experts and gain a better understanding of the themes that will shape the market over the next year.'

Besides a line-up of interesting and educational seminars at the event, CMC Markets is offering new customers a Risk Free Trading Day - the trader can keep any profits, while CMC Markets will cover any losses, during a day of real trading.

Another forex player at Invest Fair, to be held from Aug 22-23, will be Phillip Capital. Its director of business development (consumer services), Lisa Lee, says that retail players are looking for ways to ride the market volatility.

Christopher Lee, CEO of ShareInvestor, agrees. 'Based on the significant increase in the number of subscribers who attended our forex-related seminars over the past six months, we believe the FX industry in Singapore will continue to grow at a fast pace.

'Hence, we are very excited that all the major foreign exchange providers will make their presence felt at the fair as they seek to educate the public about their latest product offerings.'

The FX market is the world's largest financial market, with average daily trade exceeding US$3.2 trillion.

Industry players expect the market to become even more popular. 'We are seeing an increasing number of clients trade a multitude of asset classes including FX, shares, treasuries and commodities, all from one trading account and platform,' says CMC's Mr Sawyer.

'The ability to easily access these markets at low or zero commissions - in the case of all our other products - only means we will see greater interest and therefore higher trade activity in asset classes such as FX.'

Phillip's Ms Lee says: 'Our new FX trading platform Phillip FX 365 has seen more than 100 per cent growth in users in a short time, as all the information traders require is available to investors on a single platform.'

However, it is important that investors find out more about the forex products before jumping on to the bandwagon, she says. 'A good understanding on the workings of the product is essential before you start trading.'

Besides CMC Markets and PhillipCapital, other major FX providers such as City Index Asia, IG Markets, MF Global Singapore and Saxo Capital Markets will participate in Invest Fair 2009, which is jointly organised by ShareInvestor and The Business Times.

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BIS-China's Zhou says forex reserve policy stable

BASEL, Switzerland, June 28 (Reuters) - China has always maintained a stable foreign exchange reserves policy and there are no changes to its goal of trying to ensure safe returns, its central bank governor said on Sunday.

Speaking on the sidelines of an annual gathering at the Bank for International Settlements, Zhou Xiaochuan said:

"Our foreign exchange reserve policy is always quite stable and consistent, that is to say for the purpose of liquidity and safety and the returns."

"So I think you should realise that it is very stable. There aren't any sudden changes," he told reporters. (Reporting by Tamora Vidaillet; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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India's forex reserves rise $8 mn to 263.6 bn

MUMBAI: India's forex reserves rose by USD 8 million to USD 263.652 billion for the week ended June 19 as compared to USD 263.644 billion in the previous week. Foreign currency

assets, during the week, jumped by USD 10 million to USD 252.808 billion against USD 252.798 billion in the previous week, RBI said in its weekly report.

Foreign currency assets expressed in US dollar terms include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of non-US currencies (such as Euro, Sterling, Yen) held in reserves, RBI said.

During the period, the country's gold reserves and special drawing rights (SDRs), remained same at USD 9.604-billion and USD 1-million respectively, the bank said.

India's reserve position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) fell by USD 2-million to USD 1.239-billion in the week as compared to USD 1.241-billion in the previous week, RBI said.

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Forex reserves increase by US$8mn

India’s foreign-exchange reserves increased by US$8mn to US$263.652bn for the week ended June 19 from US$ 263.644bn last week.

Foreign-currency assets (FCA) increased by US$10mn to US$252.808bn, while the nation’s gold reserves remained static at US$373mn, according to the RBI weekly report.

FCAs expressed in US dollar terms include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of non-US currencies such as Euro, Sterling and Yen held in reserves.

India’s special drawing rights remained unchanged at US$1mn and reserves with the International Monetary Fund decreased to US$1239mn, respectively.


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