Forex Seasonality: Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen May Decline in July

Forex trading market seasonality is an effect widely studied as a primary mover of major currency pairs, as long-term studies suggest that certain seasonal patterns may be able to predict forex price moves. The month of July has produced some interesting results in the Japanese Yen and Canadian dollar. Both the USDCAD and the USDJPY have rallied in July through 9 of the past 11 years. Read below for further information on the JPY, CAD, and forex seasonality studies in other major currencies.

The Canadian dollar has shown remarkable consistency through the month of July, falling in 9 of the past 11 years of trading. One would think that such strong seasonality would have something to do with oil or commodity prices, but similar studies on Crude Oil prices and the Reuters CRB index are far less conclusive. As it stands, the USDCAD has started the month already 100+ pips below its June close. Previous trends suggest we should watch for potential USDCAD reversal through the coming month’s trade.