Forex Thoughts: Ahead Of The NFP and ECB Conference
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The market awaits the market reaction to ECB press conference, and the U.S. initial jobless claims, hourly earnings, unemployment rate, and non-farm payroll at 08:30 EDT, after the ECB maintained the minimum bid rate at 1% as widely expected.
The intra-day trade numbers are important as the markets absorb the ECB and NFP data. These release days are not the time to be in the market looking for long-term plays; those come as a reaction to the market-wide response to these releases over the next few sessions.
Historically these are volatile trading sessions, and as such great care and planning needs to be done to get the most from anything taken, and to come out of it with a shirt on our back. Expectaction and reality merge into one in most traders minds, and ranging 2000 pip runs are dreamt of.
However, those ranging, trending, moves all start with a period of volatility, contraction, tests of bids and asks, and suddenly a price is found that either buyers or sellers have given up on; and then the big break happens. If at all, that will likely be later in the session, and not at the get-go at 08:30 EDT, there is just too much to absorb,
Too many traders want to take too much from these days, for many reasons, but the reality is that small bites add up to a big chunk over time. Be patient, plan it out, know what numbers you want to hit, and accept that things can, and most likely will, spin on a dime. The ECB Pres Conference: live streaming link
There has already been more price movement from the majors overnight than we have seen historically ahead of these releases; the norm is to track sideways and then start to move about now.
The unique thing today is having the NFP moved up a day because of the 4th July U.S. Holiday, and hitting at the moment that the ECB press conference takes place.
Bear in mind that U.S. trade desks will be wrapping up early today, and that the bond markets will be all but finished in the U.S. by 11:00 EDT. We are here, we are ready, and we will update as things move. Remember, the goal is to come out of it with a shirt on our back, so move away from the mouse, wait for candles to close, plan the numbers (or use ours), and stay in control.
The impact of today will be with us for weeks, there is no rush to jump in.